Most market watchers were surprised by the strong bullish day yesterday, but they may be even more surprised by today's strong follow through. The major indexes traded steadily higher all day and closed at or near their highs for the day. This is a bit surprising given the jobs report due out tomorrow morning. One might have expected some modest pullback at the close as traders considered the possibility of a poor unemployment report tomorrow morning. The report of initial unemployment claims came in at 472k this week, down six thousand from last week.  Continuing unemployment claims also dropped slightly to 4.456 million from last week's 4.479 million. Pending home sales rose 5.2% and factory orders for July rose 0.1%. It is hard to find economic news to account for the recent rallies; it just seems the mood on the street has changed. SPX blew through its 50 dma to close at $1090, up $10 while RUT rose $7 to close at $632. Trading volume dropped off significantly today with a 17% decline on the NYSE and a 22% decline on NASDAQ. 3.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks traded, a 21% decline from yesterday's strong volume day.

My Sept iron condor on RUT at 530/540 and 740/750 now stands at a P/L of +$2,270 with a position delta of +$8 and position theta of +$54. Both spreads are greater than two standard deviations OTM. Closing the 20 contract position now would leave about $500, including commissions, on the table. My normal rule would be to evaluate this trade next Friday and, if both spreads were still OTM by over 2 SD, I would allow them to go into expiration. But I may be tempted to close this position after the holiday and take my profits because I still consider this a dangerous market. The Oct iron condor is a bit underwater at P/L = -$460, delta =-$71, and theta = +91. The 690 calls have a delta of 15, so we are close to triggering an adjustment. If tomorrow's market pulls back a bit, that will help this Oct position but be indifferent for the Sept position.

The markets opened strongly up this morning in spite of a disappointing ADP jobs report of a loss of 10,000 jobs. The August ISM Manufacturing Index reported out at 10 am and surprised traders with a value of 56.3 for July, up from 55.5 for June. This fueled the market's rise for the balance of the day. Undoubtedly, the market's strong rise this morning was fueled by traders covering their short positions, but it was a surprisingly strong day for the markets. The major indexes closed at or near their highs for the day. SPX bumped up against the 50 dma at $1081 and closed at $1080, up $31. RUT ran up $23 to close at $625, near its 50 dma at $628. Trading volume was down a bit from yesterday, with a 7% decline on the NYSE and a 3% increase on NASDAQ. The S&P 500 stocks traded 3.9 billion shares, slightly down from yesterday but still above the 50 dma.

Both RUT and SPX convincingly broke out of the trading ranges of the past several days; if SPX can break through its 50 dma at $1081, the next resistance level will be $1100. RUT's next strong resistance level is in the area of $640 to $645.My Sept RUT condor is strongly positioned with a P/L of +$1,950 with position delta = +$16 and position theta = +$94. The "sweet spot" for this condor is around $640; both spreads are now greater than two standard deviations OTM with 15 days to go. The Oct condor is being stressed by this large upward move. It stands at a P/L of -$280 with position delta = -$56 and position theta = +$90. The delta of the $690 call is up to 14. The reduction in the theta/delta ratio shows the weakening of this position as RUT rallies. It will be telling if the traders open the day taking profits tomorrow, as has been typical of recent rallies. And, of course, the bogeyman of the unemployment report is lurking around the corner.

Watching today's market reminded me of Shakespeare's quote. The markets opened down, then recovered and chopped sideways until weakening after the FOMC minutes were released. Then the markets recovered to close essentially unchanged for the day. SPX closed unchanged at $1049 after trading as low as $1041 and as high as $1055. RUT, in a similar pattern closed unchanged at $602. Even more surprising is that all of this thrashing back and forth occurred on a large surge in trading volume - just when we thought everyone had left for the weekend. The S&P 500 stocks traded 3.7 billion shares, right at its 50 dma. Trading volume on the NYSE was up 54% and up 30% on NASDAQ.

This morning's market reacted to the plunging Chicago PMI at 56.7, the lowest reading since last November but then was encouraged by the Consumer Confidence numbers increasing to 53.5 from last month's 51. More positive news came from the 4.2% increase in housing prices from the Case Schiller Housing Price Index. Just after the FOMC minutes were released, the market didn't appear to have much of a reaction. But then the markets sold off pretty hard but recovered before the close. Apparently, reading some of the FOMC committee's comments wasn't really news, but it reinforced a sobering view of the economy. RUT is almost exactly in the middle of the $588 - $617 trading range it has established recently. SPX tested support at $1040.

My Sept iron condor sits at a P/L of +$1,290, delta = +$44 and theta = +$106 and the Oct iron condor has a P/L of +$40 (essentially breakeven), with delta = -$22 with delta = +$91. Both trades are well positioned with strong theta/delta ratios. As long as we trade within the range of the past few weeks, these trades should remain strong. However, this market is still a very volatile, tricky market; it could fall off the edge at any moment. Watch your positions carefully.

Friday's gains were slowly but surely taken back in a light volume trading day. Trading volume may continue to drop as we near the holiday weekend. Trading on the NYSE and the NASDAQ were both off 26% today. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks dropped dramatically to 2.6 billion shares from Friday's 3.7 billion shares. The broad indexes all closed at or near session lows; SPX dropped $16 to close at $1049, but still well above support at $1040. RUT also traded off to close at $602, down $15, but still above support at $588. I have pointed out support because I believe the market is caught in a trading range that will probably last through the holiday weekend; if SPX breaks $1040, then we are in trouble. Personal income was reported to have risen 0.2%  while personal spending rose 0.4% and the PCE price index rose 0.1%. So the economic data wasn't the problem. Perhaps the traders are in a "wait and see" mode until after Labor Day.

In the meantime, my Sept and Oct condors are well positioned. The Sept iron condor on RUT stands at a P/L of +$950, delta = +$53 and theta = +$112, while Oct stands at a P/L of +$240, delta = -$20 and theta = +$78. Trading ranges are good for condors! Time decay continues while we wait for the market to find its direction.

The markets appeared encouraged initially this morning after seeing that the report of initial unemployment claims wasn't as high as expected (came in at 473k, down from last week's 504k). But that didn't last. The Federal Reserve bank at Kansas City reported stalled manufacturing activity in their district. Whether it was that news or just continued double dip fears, the markets traded off the rest of the day, closing near the day's lows. The SPX closed at $1047, down $8, while RUT traded down $5 to $600. Trading volume also declined 20% on the NYSE and dropped 10% on NASDAQ. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks declined to 3.3 billion shares. Both RUT and SPX appear to be building strong support levels, but it would be premature to take this as bullish. The double dip could still be lurking out there.

My Sept condor stands at a P/L of +$490, position delta = +$54 and position theta = +$102; the freshly minted Oct position stands at a P/L of -$460, delta = -$17 and theta = +$84. The theta/delta ratios of both positions are strong and both positions have ample safety margin at this point.

Today began with a heavy dose of disappointing economic data: new home sales fell 12.4%, durable goods orders only increased 0.3% (analysts expected 3%), and Standard and Poors downgraded Ireland's debt. That sent the major indexes tumbling, but, surprisingly, the drop was short-lived. The markets recovered all of the drop and closed with reasonable gains. The SPX dropped as low as $1040 before rebounding to gain $3, closing at $1055. RUT dipped to $589 again today, reinforcing that support level. Then RUT recovered its losses and closed up $9 at $605. Trading volume decreased across the board with a 4% drop on the NYSE, and a 5% drop on NASDAQ. The S&P 500 stocks traded down to 3.7 billion shares, just below the 50 dma.

After watching RUT rebound off strong support at $589 for the second day, I decided to open my Oct RUT iron condors today at 480/490 and 690/700 for a credit of $2,900 (20 contracts). The Sept position at 530/540 and 740/750 stands at a P/L of +$690 with position delta = +$50 and position theta = +$91. Today's rise of RUT moved my theta/delta ratio back to a more healthy value.

Today's recovery was encouraging, but one has to temper that with the decreased trading volume.

The markets opened weakly this morning but the existing home sales report at 10 am ET sent the markets plunging. But on the positive side, the markets recovered quickly, although the major indexes still closed the day in the red. RUT fell to $589 before recovering to close at $596, down $7 on the day. This matched RUT's low in early July, so it strengthened that support level and can be seen as offering some encouragement; but the flip side is that if RUT breaks through $589... look out below! SPX lost $15 to close at $1052. Both indexes sold off into the close. Trading volume was up across the board today with a 35% increase on the NYSE and a 28% increase on NASDAQ. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks jumped up to 3.8 billion shares today; that is slightly above the 50 day moving average at 3.7 billion shares. The 50 dma has been steadily dropping since mid-June.

My Sept condor stands at a P/L of +$290, delta = +$70 and theta = +$61. This theta/delta ratio of about one-to-one shows that we are nearing the adjustment edge of this position. But after RUT rebounded, the delta of the Sept $540 puts had recovered to 16. This morning's plunge in RUT scared me. I immediately bought two Oct $540 puts, but the sold them about 30 minutes later for a loss of $180 after RUT rebounded. It was the classic whip saw - but better safe than sorry.

The economic data appears to strongly support the premise of a faltering recovery at a minimum. The question now is: has the market's drop of the past three months been the forward looking market response or is there more downside to come? Today's sharp drop after the existing home sales report would argue there is more downside to come as the data worsens, but the rapid intraday recovery appears to refute that interpretation. In the meantime, be sure you are managing your risk and not "betting the farm" on your prediction.

The markets ran up strongly first thing this morning but were quickly pulled back by the bears and traded along the neutral line most of the day. But the last hour was all selling with the indexes closing at or near their lows for the day. The SPX ran as high as $1081, but closed down $4 at $1067. RUT behaved similarly, running up to $618 before closing at $603, down $8. Trading volume was down across the board, with a 24% decline on the NYSE and a 13% decline on NASDAQ. The S&P 500 stocks traded under three billion shares, well under Friday's volume and below the 50 day moving average.

There was no economic news to drive the market either way today. Some M&A news appeared to boost the market this morning, but it wasn't sufficient to hold the intraday highs. It seems as though the market is afflicted with a general malaise or fear that leads to profit taking whenever stocks trade higher. The low trading volume suggests this sell off is the result of short term trading in and out, rather than a general institutional exit. But the danger of this market is that it won't take much bad news to set off a serious drop.

My Sept iron condor on RUT stands at a P/L of +$740 with a position delta of +$56 and position theta of +$72 on 20 contracts. I plan to initiate my Oct condors later this week.

Trading opened down a bit this morning and drifted lower through the morning, but started to recover from noon onward. RUT traded down to $605 for most of the morning and then fell further to $602 before climbing steadily all afternoon to close at $611, unchanged for the day. The SPX traded in similar fashion, but didn't fully recover its losses, closing down $4 at $1072. Trading volume was subdued for an options expiration Friday; it was up 7% on the NYSE but down 9% on NASDAQ. The S&P 500 stocks traded 3.5 billion shares, down from yesterday and below its 50 dma.

RUT's settlement value has not yet been posted, but it seems likely to be around $605, so all of the spreads in my Aug RUT iron condor will expire worthless (550/560 and 590/600 put spreads and 680/690 and 705/715 call spreads). Thus the Aug iron condor gained $923 or 6% on the $15,400 of capital at risk. August was an extremely volatile month; I adjusted the position with long call or put hedges six times. In addition, I rolled spreads up and down four times. These adjustments consumed much of my potential profit. But remember: without those adjustments, we would have been forced to close this position early for either a breakeven or a loss. The adjustments kept us in the position so we could salvage a small profit. This brings my blog trading account up to an overall gain of 18% - not spectatcular, but pretty good given the market volatility we have been enduring. My Sept 530/540 and 740/750 condor stands at a P/L of +$860, delta = +$43 and theta = +$68.

I follow Mark Wolfinger's blog and I recommend it to you. He is a solid No Hype options trader, educator, and author. Today's blog brings up an excellent point about the potential pitfalls of multi-legged options orders - an excellent tip for condor traders. Check it out.

The unemployment claims data brought the bears out on a selling spree today. Initial unemployment claims hit a new high of 500k from 488k last week, while continuing claims decreased by 13k to 4.478 million. Then the Philadelphia Fed survey came out at -7.7, down markedly from last month's 5.0. RUT dropped $17 to close at $611 while the SPX dropped $19 to close at $1076. SPX fell through its 50 dma at $1088 like a knife through butter. All of this carnage occurred on increased trading volume. The S&P 500 stocks traded 3.9 billion shares, just above the 50 dma at 3.7 billion shares. Trading on the NYSE increased by 15% and ran up 26% on NASDAQ.

I decided to allow all of the spreads in my AUG iron condor go into expiration; they will all certainly expire worthless with one possible exception for the 590/600 puts, but they have a safety margin of $11. If they expire worthless, this position ends with a $923 gain or 6% on capital at risk. The Sept position stands at a P/L of +$700 with delta = +$46 and theta = +$63. Normally, expiration Friday is a high volume day of trading; it will be interesting to see if volumes are up from today's high levels.