Dr. Duke's Blog

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 16 January 2026

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6940, down 4.5 points for a loss of 0.06%. SPX opened the week at 6944, essentially unchanged for the week. Trading volume spiked today after running flat since 12/22.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, closed today at 15.9% after opening the week at 16.1%. VIX spiked up to 18% intraday on Wednesday.

I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed at 122.8 today, down less than a point or -0.5%. SPHB opened the week at 122.0, setting up a weekly decline of 0.7%. 

The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 23,515, down 15 points or -0.06%. NASDAQ opened the week at 23,517, setting up a weekly loss of 0.3%. NASDAQ’s trading volume has been quite low since mid-December but finally ran above the 50 dma all week. 

The overall market has traded higher since New Year’s and the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high on Monday and Tuesday but collapsed on Wednesday. SPX recovered somewhat on Thursday and Friday but fell short of the earlier highs.
The NASDAQ Composite also traded higher in this new year and hit a high on Monday that was well below its all-time high from 10/29/25. Similar to the S&P 500 index, NASDAQ tried to recover on Thursday and Friday but fell short.
Trading volume was mixed with SPX peaking today and NASDAQ running slightly above its 50 dma all week. The failed recoveries probably account for VIX declining but remaining around 16%. 

Monday will be a trading holiday, Martin Luther King day. The latest measure of GDP growth surprised analysts at 4.3% for the third quarter. The next estimate of Q3 GDP will issue on Thursday. Friday will bring the PCE Price Index, a commonly watched measure of inflation.

NFLX, JNJ, INTC, GE, and IBKR all announce earnings next week.

The Santa Claus rally (the last five trading days in December plus the first two trading days in January), failed this year with a decline of 0.03% on the S&P 500. The first five days of trading in January was positive at +0.6%. A positive first five days of January has an 83% correlation over the past 48 years with a positive market for the year. Now we wait on the January barometer (the entire month's trading results). 

Happy New Year! 

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 27 December 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6930, down two points for a loss of 0.03%. SPX opened the week at 6865, gaining 0.9% for the week. Trading volume collapsed this week; everyone on Wall Street took a holiday.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, closed today at 13.6% after opening the week at 15.2%. Lower levels of VIX suggest more complacency on the part of the large institutional traders.

I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed at 119.6 today, down less than a point or -0.2%. SPHB opened the week at 119.8, setting up a weekly decline of 0.2%. 

The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 23,593, down 20 points or -0.09%. NASDAQ opened the week at 23,450, setting up a weekly gain of 0.6%. Similar to all of the broad market indices this holiday week, NASDAQ’s trading volume was extremely low. 

The overall market has bounced back strongly since the lows on 12/17, with the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and the high beta stocks of the S&P 500 (SPHB) gaining 3.1%, 4.0% and 3.8%, respectively.

Looking farther back, the market took large drops on 10/10, 11/20 and then 12/17. Each time, those would have been aggressive, but profitable times to buy the market. The large institutional players are nervous, and they sell first to preserve profits and then jump back in the market to avoid missing the next surge upward. FactSet, an eminent market data analysis service, predicts corporate earnings will grow 15% in 2026. Another positive sign was the recovery of the volatility index (VIX) for the S&P 500, declining to 13.6% today.
The latest measure of GDP growth surprised analysts at 4.3% for the third quarter. Corporate capital expenditures, both domestic and foreign, are hitting new highs. The tax bill passed earlier this year will begin to show its effects next year.

All of this adds up to a continuation of the bull market in 2026. Now we watch the three key metrics for next year’s market: the Santa Claus rally (the last five trading days in December plus the first two trading days in January), the first week of trading in January and the January barometer (the entire month's trading results).

This is a wonderful season of the year, starting with Thanksgiving, with gratitude leading to generosity at Christmas, building our hope for a happy and prosperous New Year. Thank you for spending 2025 with me.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 12 December 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6827, down 74 points for a loss of 1.1%. SPX opened the week at 6875, losing 0.7% for the week. Trading volume has been running below average this week.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, closed today at 15.7% after spiking to 17.9% this morning. VIX opened the week at 16.2% and closed yesterday at 14.9%, setting us up for a surprise this morning.

I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed at 118.2 today, down almost three points or -2.3%. SPHB opened the week at 118.4, setting up a weekly decline of 0.2%. 

The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 23,195, down 399 points or 
-1.7%. NASDAQ opened the week at 23,638, setting up a weekly loss of 1.8%. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran at or below the 50 dma all week. Nasdaq’s trading volume has run below the 50 dma since 11/24.



Today was an ugly day in the market with all of the broad market indices posting losses. Apparently, the market reacted badly to AVGO’s earnings announcement last evening with AVGO losing 46 points or 11% today. Market analysts point to that event as the trigger for today’s sell-off. However, it is worth noting that AVGO’s sales grew 28% and yet earnings grew 37%. Today's market reaction to AVGO seems excessive but may provide hope of recovery next week.

The S&P 500, NASDAQ and the high beta stocks of the S&P 500 (SPHB) all posted losses today, ranging from 1.1% to 2.3%. Many analysts consider SPX to be the broadest measure of the market. Yesterday’s close at 6901 was just below the recent high of 6920 on October 29. The S&P 500 closed down at 6827 after bouncing off support at 6800. The fact that the S&P 500 found support at 6800 is encouraging. Another positive sign was the recovery of the volatility index (VIX) for the S&P 500 today, closing at 15.7% after spiking to 17.9% this morning. The NASDAQ Composite is trading weaker than SPX, closing just above its 50 dma today.

I felt bullish about the market yesterday and thought the bullish run was accelerating. Today’s sell-off surprised me. Two of my trades were set to post their maximum gains yesterday but ended up taking large losses today. Hopefully we can put AVGO’s earnings and the market’s response behind us on Monday.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 21 November 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6603, up 64 points or one percent. SPX opened the week at 6714, losing 1.7% for the week. Trading volume spiked up above the 50-day moving average (dma) yesterday and today.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, closed today at 23.4%. VIX opened the week at 19.6% for a weekly increase of 19%.

I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed at 106 today, up 1.9 points or 1.8%. SPHB opened the week at 110, setting up a weekly decline of 3.6%. 

All of the broad market indices posted declines of 1.7% up to 3.6%. The S&P 500 index, the NASDAQ Composite, and the high beta stocks of the S&P 500 all posted losses yesterday going back to the lows of mid-September and October. Traders were really spooked by the end of Thursday’s debacle. The week’s decline at that point brought out all the “sky is falling” crowd. 

Today’s trading sank even lower, breaking through Thursday’s close, but then the market turned higher and recovered about half of Thursday’s losses before pulling back modestly into the close. This situation reminds me of this time last week. We thought we might be staring over the cliff, but last Friday’s trading gave us some hope. That hope was dashed this week, but here we are again, seeing signs of a moderately strong recovery, leading us to hope this market has found its bottom.

I remain spooked. Cut your losses, if you haven’t already, and sit comfortably on your cash.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 15 November 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6734, down 3 points or -0.05%. SPX opened the week at 6785, losing 0.8% for the week. Trading volume ran just above the 50-day moving average (dma) all week. Today’s close was just above the 50 dma and on a support level around 6700.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, closed today at 19.8%, after spiking to 23% earlier today. 

I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed at 108.6 today, down less than one point or -0.2%. SPHB opened the week at 114.5, setting up a weekly decline of 5.2%. SPHB trading volume is running below the 50 dma. SPHB tried to break above the 50 dma today, but pulled back to close below that resistance level.

The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 22,901, up 30 points or 0.13%. NASDAQ opened the week at 23,355, setting up a weekly loss of 1.9%. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran at or below the 50 dma all week. NASDAQ rallied today to close above the 50 dma. 

The broad market indices declined this week with the S&P 500 high beta stocks leading the way with a 5% loss for the week. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite broke their 50 day moving averages last Friday, but both recovered their 50 dma today. S&P’s high beta stocks remain below their 50 dma and posted the largest weekly decline at 5%. This leaves us with a “maybe yes” and “maybe no” situation. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ appear to be resuming their bullish runs, but the high beta stocks of SPX have not yet recovered. That is a significant cautionary signal.

I remain slightly bullish but very cautious.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 08 November 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 6729, up 8 points or 0.1%. SPX opened the week at 6882, losing 2.2% for the week. Trading volume ran just above the 50-day moving average (dma) all week.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, closed today at 19.1%, but that only tells part of the story. VIX spiked to 22.7% today before declining to 19.1% at the close. Recovery?

I monitor the movement of high beta stocks by tracking the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB. SPHB closed at 112.5 today, up less than one point or +0.4%. SPHB opened the week at 115.6, setting up a weekly decline of 2.7%. SPHB trading volume spiked up to 956,900 shares today, 157% over the 50 dma. 

The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 23,005, down 49 points or 
0.2%. NASDAQ opened the week at 23,952, setting up a large weekly loss of 4.0%. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran along the 50 dma all week.

The federal government remains closed, eliminating significant economic and unemployment data, leaving traders in the dark. Perhaps that is one of the factors resulting in the current levels of market volatility. 
The broad market indices hit all-time highs on 11/3, but began a slide lower the next day. This week’s declines were ugly with SPX at -2.2%, NASDAQ at 
-4.0% and the high beta stocks of the S&P 500 declining 2.7%.
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite broke their 50 day moving averages on Friday. That is normally a significant bearish signal. However, that signal appeared to awaken the bull, as all of the indices perked up and recovered a large portion of this week’s losses. SPX is down 2.2% this week but managed to recover enough by the close today to post a small, but positive, daily gain.

A strong bullish signal came from the S&P’s high beta stocks. Their trading volume spiked today to 956,900 shares, up 157% over the 50 dma. That suggests that large institutional traders saw this a “risk on” event and began loading up on high beta stocks to magnify portfolio gains.

I am looking forward to Monday’s market opening to see if the bullish ending of today’s market continues next week. I am optimistic but cautious. 

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 01 November 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) put on a show this week, hitting a new all-time high on Wednesday, falling out of bed on Thursday, and then recovering all of that loss today, closing at 6840. SPX opened the week at 6845 to end the week essentially unchanged. Trading volume spiked for the last three days of the week.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 15.7% and closed today at 17.4%. VIX increased all week as traders worried about the FOMC and then were spooked by Powell’s comments on Thursday.

I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 115.1 today, +0.7 points or 0.6%. SPHB opened the week at 116 for a weekly loss of 0.8%. SPHB trading volume spiked with the FOMC drop on Thursday but ran below the 50 dma the rest of the week. 

The NASDAQ Composite index recovered much of Wednesday’s collapse, closing at 23,725, up 144 points or 0.6%. NASDAQ opened the week at 23,537, gaining 0.8% for the week. Trading volume ran at or above the 50 dma all week.

The federal government remains closed, eliminating significant economic and unemployment data, leaving traders in the dark in terms of economic and unemployment data. The market continues to be fundamentally bullish, but with significant price spikes and declines, based on the news and rumors each day.

The FOMC reduced the federal discount rate by 25 basis points on Thursday and the market spiked higher. But then Powell threw cold water on the market when asked about another rate cut in December. Normally he would have answered that the decision would depend on the data in December, but not this time. He opined that he doubted another rate cut would occur this year. The market tanked. But we recovered most of that loss on Friday. I take that as a sign of bullish confidence. But the volatility is spooky.

My advice for next week remains the same: Stay calm and look for opportunities, but don’t force the trade. It doesn’t hurt to take a pause.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 17 October 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed up 35 points today, closing at 6664. SPX opened the week at 6623, setting up a weekly gain of 0.6%. Trading volume ran along the 50 dma all week. SPX is trading within the channel from 6561 to 6705.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 19.5% and climbed as high as 28% this morning but closed today at 20.8%, down 18%. The market has calmed significantly.

I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 111.1 today, down less than one point or 0.1%. SPHB opened the week at 110 for a weekly gain of one percent. SPHB trading volume ran above average all week with the exception of Thursday.

The NASDAQ Composite index recovered much of last Friday’s collapse, closing at 22,680, up 117 points or 0.5%. NASDAQ opened the week at 22,579, gaining 0.4% for the week. Trading volume ran above the 50 dma most of the week but settled down to the 50 dma today.
Traders opened this week carefully after last Friday’s ugly decline of 2.7%. 

The federal government remains closed, eliminating significant economic and unemployment data, leaving traders in the dark in terms of economic and unemployment data.

Last Friday, I suggested three possibilities for this week:

   • Will calmer minds dominate trading on Monday morning? 


   • Will the lower prices be seen as buying opportunities? 


   • Could the market slide continue lower? 

The S&P 500 stocks gave up 187 points last Friday, but they recovered 41% of that loss this week. I take that as a sign of bullish confidence. We aren’t going over the cliff. It just remains a very volatile market.

My advice for next week remains the same: Stay calm and look for opportunities, but don’t force the trade. It doesn’t hurt to take a pause.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 10 October 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) plunged today, closing at 6553, down 183 points or 2.7%. SPX opened the week at 6734 for a loss of 2.7% for the week. Trading volume ran along the 50 dma all week but spiked higher today as the market sold off. The S&P 500 index has not traded off this badly since the correction in early April.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 16.7% and traded sideways most of the week, closing Thursday at 16.4%. However, today’s sell-off spiked volatility to a close of 21.7%.

I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 107.5 today, down 5.4 points or 4.8%. SPHB opened the week at 113.7 for a weekly decline of 5.5%. SPHB trading volume spiked up 274% today.

The NASDAQ Composite index collapsed today, closing at 22,204, down 820 points or 3.6%. NASDAQ opened the week at 22,894, losing 3.0% for the week. Trading volume ran steadily above the 50 dma all week and didn’t even spike higher with the market sell-off today.

Since the market correction hit its low in early April, the market has steadily trended higher, in spite of multiple uncertainties: tariffs, political tension, deportation of illegal immigrants, etc. After the cease fire announcement in the middle east yesterday, I assumed a strong market would make its showing today. That prediction lasted until just before 11 am ET, when news of increased tariff tensions with China hit the markets. From that moment until the close of trading the S&P 500 lost over 2.7%. Ugly!

The federal government remains closed, eliminating significant economic and unemployment data. Shortly before the shutdown, the third and final estimate of second quarter GDP growth came in at +3.8%. That was impressive, but now it seems we are trading largely in the dark in terms of economic and unemployment data.

I have often cautioned my clients about event risk. It is always a surprise and it can really hurt, just as it did today. When these market sell-offs occur on Fridays, analysts always speculate:

   •  Will calmer minds dominate trading on Monday morning? 



   •  Will the lower prices be seen as buying opportunities? 



   •  Could the market slide continue lower? 
 
Stay calm and look for opportunities, but don’t force the trade. It doesn’t hurt to take a pause.

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Written by Dr. Duke

Created: 20 September 2025

The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) set another all-time high today, closing at 6664, up 32 points or +0.5%. SPX opened the week at 6603 for a 0.9% gain for the week. Trading volume ran along the 50 dma all week, with the exception of today’s spike, due to quadruple witching.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 15.1%, and closed today at 15.5%. VIX spiked up a bit to 16.8% on Wednesday with the FOMC announcement.

I track the movement of the ETF containing the top 100 S&P 500 stocks ranked by beta, SPHB, to monitor the movement of high beta stocks. SPHB closed at 110.6 today, down less than one point or -0.1%. SPHB opened the week at 108.0 and posted a gain of 2.4% for the week. Trading volume spiked higher yesterday after the FOMC announcement.

The NASDAQ Composite index set a new all-time high today, closing at 22,631, up 161 points or 0.7%. NASDAQ opened the week at 22,343, gaining 1.3% for the week. Trading volume remained at or below the 50 dma this week except for a move higher yesterday and a large spike today with the quadruple witching today.

This market has lived with the uncertainties of the tariffs, political tension, deportation of illegal immigrants, and the continuous noise of the protesters as background. Apparently, it is becoming old hat, and the market just motors higher, setting several all-time highs over the past two weeks.

The FOMC meeting was the event on traders’ minds for the past several weeks. It was interesting to follow the one-minute chart on SPX through the day on Wednesday. It was choppy and wandering sideways until the announcement at 2 pm ET. Then it spiked higher on the 25-basis point reduction in the federal discount rate. Then it started to weaken, and it plunged during the press conference as Powell struggled to explain the reasoning behind their decision for a 25-point reduction rather than a 50-point reduction, considered more appropriate by many economists.

I often trade the SPX Zero DTE options and Wednesday was no exception. One consequence of the discount rate battle was higher than normal implied volatility at the start of the day for the SPX options. And implied volatility did not decrease much even after the announcement. On the other hand, I gained 37% on my zero dte trade in the midst of the chaos.

The basic economic data remain positive, and the bullish nature of the market seems solid. I was most impressed with the 2.4% rise of the high beta S&P 500 stocks this week. Event risk is our main concern at this point. It won’t take much news or even rumors to cause traders to sell to lock in these gains. Stay calm and stick to your trading rules.