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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The rumor mill and sound bites continue to be the principal drivers for this market, to the chagrin of anyone trying to trade. SPX closed at $1416, up $6 and RUT traded up to $823 for a gain of $10. VIX closed today down about a half point at 15.1%. Trading volume was flat with 2.4 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading volume was down 3% on the NYSE and up 3% on NASDAQ.

Economic news continues to be flat to modestly positive; this recovery is taking forever to get us back out of the woods. I fear we may hit another recession before we have fully recovered from the last one. Initial unemployment claims remain essentially flat at 393k and continuing unemployment claims were reported at 3.3 million. Third quarter GDP growth was revised upward to an annualized rate of 2.7%, a pleasant surprise. And pending home sales grew 5.2% in October, continuing the glimmer of hope for real estate.

SPX has been flirting with resistance at $1410 for the past several sessions and closed right at resistance yesterday. Today SPX opened there and never looked back, closing at $1416. During today's trading, SPX almost reached the 50 dma at $1422 (it traded as high as $1420). But this market is extremely volatile. SPX almost traded down to the 200 dma yesterday; in two days of trading, we almost spanned the distance between the 200 dma and the 50 dma. Every news article quoting someone in D.C. is moving the market. And to think we have about thirty days of this craziness to endure!

My Dec iron condor on RUT stands at a net loss of $4240 or 20% with position delta = -$144 and theta = +$98. Even if the current spreads expire worthless, I am looking at an 8% loss for December. This month's trading has been characterized by whip saws back and forth - the minute I hedge, the market turns; then when I remove the hedge, the market turns again. I angered the trading gods somehow...