Print
Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
Hits: 1617
Star InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar Inactive
 

Earlier this week, I said I expected the markets to chop weakly sideways this week as we approach the jobs report Friday. But the market has just traded lower each day. Gloom has replaced euphoria. SPX closed down $22 today at $1609. This solidly broke support at $1635 and closed just above strong support at $1600 and near the 50 dma at $1604. A 5% pull back from the highs would take us to $1586. RUT's chart is similar. RUT broke support at $975 and closed at $968, down $14. The next strong support level is at $955 and the 50 dma = $954. As one might expect, the VIX jumped up over a point to 17.5% today. For comparison, VIX hit 17.5% in the minor pull back in April, touched 19% in February, and was just under 23% during the fiscal cliff debacle before the first of the year. Trading volume was flat with 2.6 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading; trading volume on the NYSE increased 1% and trading on NASDAQ decreased 1%.

The ADP employment report came out this morning at 135k. That isn't a great number, but not terrible either, so I'm unsure why the market would tumble on that basis. If anything, I would have thought this was setting the stage for a mediocre jobs report Friday that would assure traders that the Fed will continue to support this market. The ISM service report increased to 53.7 for May from last month's 53.1. The issuance of the Beige Book from the FOMC was a non-event this afternoon.

I watch CNBC off and on throughout the day. It fascinates me how they can find guests to deliver the "I told you so" message no matter what the market does each day. They must have a prearranged cast of bulls and bears just waiting for the call.

My June iron condor at 890/900 and 1030/1040 stands at a P/L of -$760 with position delta = +$17 and position theta = +$158. This condor is now pretty close to delta neutral with the delta of the short call at 4 and the short put at 9. My July condor is positioned at 870/880 and 1060/1070 and is already in the black with a net gain of $400 and delta = +$15 and theta = +$68.

Tomorrow brings us the unemployment claims report, our last significant data point before the Non-Farm Payrolls report Friday morning, aka the jobs report.