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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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All eyes were focused on the Fed today. The official policy statement was essentially the same as last month: the economic recovery continues slowly, interest rates will remain low and the bond buying programs will continue. Bernanke attempted to communicate the Fed's "game plan" in his news conference, but reporters were naively looking for more specificity. To my mind, Bernanke communicated as well as possible given the unknown future circumstances: QE may begin to be reduced late this year and could end as early as mid-2014, but that depends on the measures of a healthy economic recovery, most notably a lower unemployment rate. Interest rates will remain low until inflation becomes a concern and that could be as late as 2015. What do Liesman and the rest of the CNBC bunch want? Do they seriously think the Fed can lay out a definitive time line without knowing where various economic indicators might be later this year? I might expect freshman college students to be this naive, but not mature adults. Perhaps this is indicative of the general trend in our country to want Big Brother to take care of us and eliminate all risk and uncertainty.

SPX traded down after the Fed announcement, closing down $23 at $1629. RUT lost $13 to close at $987. VIX dropped and then rose, ending the day unchanged at 16.6%.

My June position stands at a net gain of $821 or +4% with position delta = -$11 and position theta = +$266. The July position stands at a net gain of $1,240 or +7% with position delta = -$11 and position theta = +$121. I will be watching the charts closely tomorrow to see if the markets trade lower or just start to chop sideways a bit. It often takes a couple of days for traders to absorb the implications of the Fed announcement.