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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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Today's trading pattern was very similar to yesterday with a bullish start and acceleration up to or just beyond the 50 day moving average (dma), but then a pullback to the close. The 50 dma is beginning to appear to be a substantial resistance level. Last Thursday marked another day where the 50 dma pushed the bulls back before the close of trading. SPX closed down $1 at $1614 and RUT closed unchanged at $989. Volatility remains unchanged at 16.4%. Trading volume rose modestly from yesterday with 2.3 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading today. Trading volume rose 6% on the NYSE and increased 7% on NASDAQ. The exchanges will be closed Thursday and will close early tomorrow, so I would expect volume to fall off markedly tomorrow. If not for the jobs report Friday morning, I would expect a very low volume trading day, assuming most traders will be out of the office. But an surprising jobs report might trigger some volatility on Friday.

The S&P 500 remains trapped between support at $1600 and the 50 dma at $1624. But I would prefer to see SPX break through $1640 before I would feel very confident about a return to the bullish trend that characterized trading this year until May 22nd. That era of unbridled enthusiasm appears to have ended. But I've been wrong before.

My July iron condor on RUT at 870/880 and 1060/1070 stands at a net gain of $2,840 or +17% with position delta = +$5 and position theta = +$41 (20 contracts). This position is remarkably delta neutral as we approach the two week mark until July expiration. What has happened to this year? I just became accustomed to writing 2013 on various documents and the year is half gone!