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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The markets appeared to be losing their bullish steam today. SPX opened down and just slowly sunk throughout the day, closing at $1686, down $6. RUT lost $8 to close at $1044. Volatility increased about half a point with the VIX at 13.2% - still a relatively low number. Trading volume increased quite a bit, adding to the bearish mood. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks increased to 2.3 billion, still below the 50 dma. Trading on the NYSE increased 9% and volume on NASDAQ increased 13%, probably driven by a spike in AAPL trading after its earnings announcement.

Since the recent rise in the S&P 500 has been largely straight up, it is hard to cite strong support levels to watch in a pull back - perhaps $1680? The peak from May was around $1670 and the high in mid-June was around $1652.

The European PMI was issued today, reporting 50.4 for July. This was the first expansionary number (greater than 50) for 18 months, so it was a pleasant surprise, but Europe is far from out of the woods. Euro Zone unemployment stands at 12.2%. This pushed European markets higher but apparently reminded our traders that Europe remains a problem. New home sales came in at 497k for June, up from 459k, but I suppose good news in the real estate markets is old news.

The stellar run up since June 24 has proven difficult for my August iron condor on RUT. I started with the 860/870 put spreads and the 1050/1060 call spreads. I have hedged with Sep 1040 calls (sold today) and have rolled the call spreads twice, now at 1080/1090. The put spreads were rolled up to 970/980. The position currently stands at a net loss of $4700 with delta = -$71 and theta = +$189. Now I am simply managing the trade to minimize the loss for this month. We have a shot of coming out near break-even, but we'll see.