The markets gapped open to the downside this morning and the losses just mounted as the day went on. The underlying drivers are being debated, but analysts point to talk of the U.S. entering the war in Syria and the coming debate in Washington surrounding budgets and the debt ceiling.
The interview with Secretary Lew on CNBC today where he drew a hard "no negotiation" line in the sand, appears to be leading the country to some ugly brinksmanship. Perhaps that exacerbated the nervousness over Syria. Another viewpoint is to cite this as simply a continuation of the decline that began August 5th. Whatever the underlying drivers are, it was an ugly day with SPX losing $26 to close at $1630 and RUT closing at $1013, down $25. As one might expect, volatility increased with the VIX at 17%, up almost two points on the day. Trading volume popped up to the 50 dma with 2.2 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading today. Trading on the NYSE increased 25% and trading volume increased 16% on NASDAQ.
Consumer confidence surprised analysts by increasing a bit to 81.5 in August; analysts expected a slight pull back from the previous reading of 81.0. The Case Schiller Housing Price Index increased 0.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis (+2.2% non-adjusted), thus reinforcing the continuing housing recovery. But this reasonably positive news this morning did not seem to support this market as it opened down and just traded lower as the day wore on.
Today's drop in RUT and the volatility increase pulled my Sept condor down a bit to a net gain of 10% with delta = +$39 and theta = +$67. But the delta of the 940 put remains relatively low at 11.
So now we look to tomorrow to see if this slide continues or the bulls see these prices as a buying opportunity. You could argue that this bout of market weakness may make it less likely that the FOMC will taper this year and that could stimulate some bullish behavior. But that assumes that the FOMC takes market levels into account in their decisions?
