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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The markets continued to trade higher today and the euphoria continues (unless you own NFLX). SPX gained $10 to close at $1755 and RUT gained $3 to close at $1116. Volatility remained flat with VIX closing unchanged at 13.3%. Trading volume jumped upward with 2.5 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading volume on the NYSE surged upward 13% and trading on the NASDAQ was up 6%. New market highs are becoming routine events in this marketplace. It makes me uneasy. RUT set a new high with its intraday high of $1122, but it closed almost precisely at its opening price, setting up the classic doji candlestick. The doji is the sign of a marketplace nearly perfectly balanced between the buyers and sellers; candlestick analysts view this as a sign of indecision, and possibly a change in direction.

The September jobs report was issued today, a couple of weeks late due to the government shutdown. It reported a drop in new jobs to 148 thousand and a slight drop in unemployment from 7.3% to 7.2%. Most analysts had expected closer to 180k new jobs. The previous month's reports were revised with August moving up to 193k from 169k. But July was revised downward to 89k from 104k. So the report was similar to recent ones: not too bad, but not very good either. But many view these weak reports as positive news in that the Fed isn't as likely to remove its stimulus programs. That is probably a short sighted viewpoint, but we'll see.

As you probably have guessed, my NFLX earnings trade didn't work as planned. The put helped, but wasn't sufficient to save me. I adjusted the trade this morning, but NFLX just continued to fall all day, so I closed for a loss this afternoon. The CEO's comments on the conference call that the stock price had traded too high apparently were taken to heart.