The major market indexes opened lower this morning and appeared to be continuing the downward plunge. But then the buyers showed up. SPX dipped as low as $1738 and then bounced back to close near its highs of the day at $1752, down $4. RUT displayed a similar pattern, closing down $9 at $1094. VIX rose again today, ending the day at 20%, shy of Monday's high at a little over 21%. Trading volume dropped off a bit to 2.6 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks, but this remains above the 50 dma at 2.2B. Trading volume on the NYSE decreased 2%, but volume was flat on NASDAQ.
The question on all of our minds is simply this: Where is the bottom of this correction? Some have been hanging their hats on a 10% correction; that would be around $1665 on SPX. The 200 dma of SPX is at $1709. Another possibility results when you apply Bollinger bands to the SPX; the lower edge of the band is at $1690, or about -9%. The last three days of trading seem to suggest support at $1740, but that is based on minimal data.
The jobs report on Friday could be the tipping point. ADP released its private payroll report today with 175 thousand new jobs. This is down quite a bit from December's 227k - and remember how badly the jobs report undershot that number? Is this a precursor to a weak jobs report? Or should we give up on the ADP report as having any predictive value?
The other economic datum today was the ISM Services index, reporting at 54.0, up from the December value of 53.0.
I doubt we will see much market action up or down tomorrow. I think everyone will be waiting on the jobs report Friday morning. But I could be wrong. Maybe traders will be selling to reduce their risk going into Friday. I certainly will be evaluating my positions with that in mind.
