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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The old saying goes, "Markets take the stairs up but the elevator down." For the last 18 months or so, we need to revise that saying to: "Markets now use the elevator in both directions." Consider the last pull back. SPX lost $75 or 4% in 7 trading sessions, but had recovered $64 or 85% of those losses in just 6 trading sessions (through yesterday). Today, SPX finally decided to take a breather, giving up $4 to close at $1875. RUT has been on a hot streak higher as well, but it lost about twice as much as SPX and has recovered only about half of that loss through yesterday's close. Today, RUT also cooled a bit, losing $9 to close at $1147. Volatility has remained about flat with the VIX steady at 13.3%.

New home sales tumbled for March, dropping from an annualized rate of 449k to 384k. This was in contrast to yesterday's flat numbers for existing home sales.

This earnings season has been modest thus far, not enough to get the bulls or the bears too fired up. But with the Fed continuing to pump money into the market and hold interest rates down, one has to give the nod to the bulls. It would be nice to see some significant improvement in the jobs market; we get the weekly unemployment claims tomorrow, but that number has a lot of noise in it and requires several sessions to confirm a trend. Lately, it has been moving roughly sideways - not worse, but not significantly better either.

Will AAPL push the market higher tomorrow? It looks pretty strong in after hours trading.

The period of May though October has historically been a pretty flat, sideways market. Most of the market's gains have come in the November through April period. Could we be seeing the beginning of a sideways, choppy summer or do we have some more upside zip left in this market?