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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The markets opened a little weak for a few minutes this morning, but then traded up all day with SPX gaining $7 to close at $1885. RUT also gained on the day, closing up $12 at $1114. Volatility was unchanged with the VIX at 12.4%. the NASDAQ composite tacked on $35, almost 1%. But before we hang too much on those numbers, it is important to note that trading volume dropped off with 1.7 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading today, well below the 50 dma of 2.2 billion shares. Trading volume fell 17% on the NYSE and decreased 9% on NASDAQ. We have a long weekend coming up, but it seems too early for everyone to be checking out. I think the safest conclusion is to say that we remain trading sideways in a narrow range. And this is consistent with the classic "Sell in May" pattern for the summer. Many focus on the "sell", but this isn't a period of decline; the typical historical trend has been sideways, range bound trading. Even if the bears take their turn tomorrow, I expect SPX will remain in the range of $1850 to $1900.

My Jun RUT iron condor at 1040/1050 and 1220/1230 stands at a net P/L of $2,340 on 20 contracts or +16% with delta = +$54 and theta = +$62. I also entered a diagonal call spread today on SNDK, long the Jun 90 call and short the MayWk4 92 call. SNDK has been in a strong bullish trend for quite a while and this has been reinforced after its recent earnings announcement. Diagonal call spreads work well with slightly bullish to sideways patterns. The next several weeks should be a good time for that class of trade.

This is going to be a slow week for economic data and trading will most likely slow as we approach the three day holiday weekend. I don't expect any fireworks.  So today's low volume sideways trading may be typical of the week.