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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The markets slowed a bit today after a solid four days of trading significantly higher. SPX lost $2 to close at $1910 and RUT closed down $6 at $1137. Trading volume remains weak with 1.7 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading today, slightly lower than yesterday. Volume rose 1% on the NYSE and declined 3% on NASDAQ.

Volatility rose about two tenths of a point today with the VIX closing at 11.7%. I wouldn't bet the farm on this, but I find the VIX chart over the past three days interesting. It is only three days, but one could easily draw a slightly rising trend line for VIX, while SPX is also rising - a potential divergence in the making? I have seen this happen before, preceding a pull back on SPX. But I am not in the "sky is falling" camp. I think Fed support and solid corporate earnings will hold this market in at a least a sideways trend. However, after such strong trading for the past few days, a little pull back lower wouldn't be surprising.


GDP growth for the first quarter and unemployment claims will be reported tomorrow. The risk for the market would be a negative GDP number - that might spook some traders.

In the meantime, my RUT June condor at 1040/1050 and 1220/1230 stands at a net gain of $3,540 on 20 contracts or +23% with position delta = +$11 and position theta = +$100. We have a nearly perfectly delta neutral position with about 3 weeks until expiration. I have an internal debate at a point like this between closing early for a large percentage of the gains or allowing the trade to appreciate even further. As long as the trade remains delta neutral, I am inclined to let it run; a large one day move in either direction will cause me to push the exit button.