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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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These bulls refuse to be stopped. First quarter GDP came in at a negative 1%. Most economists define a recession as two negative growth GDP quarters in succession. But that didn't faze this market. SPX traded up $10 to close at a new all-time high of $1920 and over half of those gains occurred after 2 pm ET. The bulls enthusiastically traded the market higher into the close. RUT was positive, but not quite as strong with a $3 gain to close at $1140. Volatility remains pretty flat at 11.6%, down a tenth of a point on the day. Today's bullish rampage occurred on reduced trading volume with only 1.6 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading today; the 50 dma is at 2.1B. Trading volume declined 7% on the NYSE and dropped 4% on NASDAQ.

Initial unemployment claims came in at 300k, down from last week's 327k; the four week moving average is flat at 312k. Continuing claims decreased 17 thousand to 2.6 million.

Today's strong bullish performance in the face of the GDP report is a little disconcerting. This is the kind of excessive bullishness that leads to crashes. On the other hand, this bullish run has occurred pretty consistently on low trading volume. I may be wrong, but it seems like we are pushing the envelope. We'll see. In the meantime, I'm glad my short put spreads are far OTM. But the call spreads are being squeezed.