This bull market is getting a little long in the tooth, but the bulls remain in charge. Even bad economic news is discounted. The bears have been unable to take advantage of any bad news. Perhaps a large part of the bulls' case is simply the Fed support. As long as billions of dollars are being pumped in every month, it is hard to make the bear case. In addition, one has to consider investment alternatives; where can you put your money to work? It could be argued that equities are the only game in town.
SPX traded slightly down essentially all day, but recovered to close unchanged at $1963. RUT lost $3 to close at $1185. Volatility remains low and unchanged with the VIX coming in at 11.0%, up only a tenth of a point. As one might expect after quadruple witching on Friday, trading volume fell off with 1.7 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading today. But if one excludes Friday's spurt, 1.7B is back in line with recent months, running just under the 50 dma. Trading volume on the NYSE fell 56% from Friday and NASDAQ dropped off 31%.
The only significant economic news today was the annualized rate of existing home sales for May at 4.89 million, up from April's 4.66 million. Tomorrow brings Case-Schiller, consumer confidence, and new home sales. Wednesday brings the third revision of first quarter GDP. A surprise in GDP could move the market, but this bull market completely ignored the first estimate of a negative 1.5% growth. I remain cautious, but one has to play this market from the bullish side until we see it crack.
