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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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Wow! First quarter GDP was revised downward to an annualized rate of -2.9%. I was surprised by the first estimate at -1.5%, but I assumed the revisions would take it back higher. It seems like the FOMC's downward revision of GDP for this year to +2.3% might have been too optimistic. If the GDP number wasn't enough, durable goods orders declined 1.0% in May, down from the positive 0.8% gain in April. But the bulls just shrugged it all off and traded higher from a just a few minutes after the open. Ignoring such a dreadful GDP report is truly amazing!

It is true that bull markets often behave just this way, continuing higher even in the face of negative news. But unfortunately, it never ends well. The euphoria will end, but it is hard to predict when or what will trigger the run on the exits. In the meantime, all you can do is trade what you see.

SPX opened at $1949 and traded lower for all of two minutes (two candlesticks on the one minute chart), but then it was higher all day long, closing at $1960, up $10. RUT closed up $9 at $1183. The VIX dropped a half point to close at 11.6%.  Trading volume was mixed, but basically flat from yesterday, with 2.0 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading. Trading volume rose 6% on the NYSE, but dropped 13% on NASDAQ.

Unemployment claims will be reported tomorrow and the Michigan consumer sentiment report issues Friday. And the bears continue to hibernate...