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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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The S&P futures were positive early this morning, and the markets opened higher, but then immediately reversed. It was looking as though we were breaking down to new lows. But then it recovered, and by the end of the day, SPX had tacked on $26 to close at $2021, near its intraday high. RUT followed suit, closing up $10 at $1176. Volatility pulled back by a point and a half, with VIX closing the day at 19.4%. Trading volume was down a bit with 2.5 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading, but that remains well above the 50 dma at 2.2B. Trading volume decreased 13% on the NYSE and declined 11% on NASDAQ.

The ISM manufacturing index came in at 55.0 for January, flat with December (55.1). Construction spending gained 0.4% in December after a decline of 0.2% in November.

Whether you are focused on the SPX chart as a sideways trading range with a floor at $1990 or a sideways wedge with a rising lower trend line around $1995, SPX dipped outside of that pattern this morning, but bounced nicely. I don't think we should do the happy dance just yet, but it is reassuring.

My Feb iron condor on RUT at 1070/1080 and 1300/1310 is now up 12% with 17 days remaining. Those put spreads are now 1.6 standard deviations OTM, which is reassuring given this market's weakness.

It seems as though I have been shoveling snow for the past 24 hours, but today was a beautiful day with blue skies and sun sparkling off the snow, and there is a low of snow. The official count was 17 inches. I can hear some of my friends down south now, but don't you miss the seasons? Hmm...