Print
Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
Hits: 1661
Star InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar InactiveStar Inactive
 

SPX continued its ride higher, closing at $2095, up $6. RUT closed up $7 at $1223. And NASDAQ and all of the other indexes followed suit. In fact, if you looked at the small cap indexes and compared them to their big brothers, there was a pretty clear "risk on" trend. The bullish break-out is alive and well, and traders are excited. As you might expect, volatility dropped to its lowest level this year, closing down seven tenths of a point at 14.7%. The only negative sign was declining trading volume. 2.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks traded and trading volume declined 5% on the NYSE. Trading on NASDAQ was down 6%.

On the other hand, we are looking at a three day weekend of the type where our markets are the only ones closed on Monday. So you can have huge pent up demand to push stocks one way or the other Tuesday morning, depending on what happened over the weekend and on Monday. Now add Greece and their negotiations with the Euro Zone. I can think of many possible scenarios that could result in a big move Tuesday morning.

Now you can see why I closed the call spreads on my February iron condor on RUT today; they were 2.8 standard deviations OTM, but I decided that saving the five cents it took to close them wasn't worth the risk of giving up more on Tuesday. I left the put spreads open; they are almost five standard deviations OTM. Assuming the put spreads expire worthless next weekend, the February position closes for a gain of 18%.

I also hedged my risk on the March position by closing the RUT 1270/1280 call spreads; this brings my position to break-even. It will return to a potential profit after I sell new call spreads next week. But, in the meantime, I will sleep better.

Have a great weekend.