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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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Ho hum. I expected a slow day on the street today and I wasn't disappointed. SPX lost $7 to close at $2074, but RUT gained $2, closing at $1242. Volatility was unchanged with the VIX closing at 15.7%. Trading volume was anemic with 1.9 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading volume was down 5% on the NYSE and up 1% on NASDAQ.

The only economic news for the day wasn't reassuring. Housing starts fell markedly in February, down to an annualized rate of 987k, down from 1081k. You might think this was weather related, but that was only part of the story; the decline was present across the country. Building permits held steady with 1092k in February, up a bit from last month's 1060k.

Tomorrow may be a volatile day in the markets with so much attention focused on the FOMC and the prospect of increasing interest rates. This topic has taken on "bogeyman qualities", with traders and institutions behaving as though the Fed will move interest rates from zero to 10% overnight and crash the economy. If you don't believe me, tune in to CNBC tomorrow afternoon and listen to the breathless commentary surrounding whether the word, "patient", is present in the announcement.

My April iron condor on RUT at 1110/1120 and 1310/1320 is delta neutral with delta = $1.50 per contract, and stands at a net gain of 7.3% with 30 days to expiration. We closed the March position last week, locking in a 9.5% gain.

Get your popcorn ready, tomorrow afternoon should be interesting. Or maybe it turns out to be a non-event. The market likes to fool us.