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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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SPX opened weakly this morning and traded down to $2046 by 10:15 am ET. Then it recovered and traded up to $2067 (the 50 dma) by 2 pm ET, and closed at $2056, down $5. RUT closed down $2 at $1232. The VIX rose four tenths of a point to close at 15.8%. Trading volume was flat today with 2.3 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading hands. Trading volume on the NYSE was unchanged, but was down 9% on NASDAQ.

We are becoming accustomed to these "mini-corrections". In March, SPX pulled back by 3.6% to a low on March 11th at $2040. In a matter of only a couple of weeks, we are back testing that support level. Today's price action, with the push down to $2046 followed by a bounce was reassuring for me. Perhaps the market is beginning the process of finding support at or close to $2040. One could interpret today's price action on SPX as bouncing off support near $2040 and then recovering to bounce off resistance at the 50 dma. In any case, I think we are observing a nervous market, trying to find its way. But tomorrow brings another revision to 4Q GDP; that could reassure the market or push it over the edge. Welcome to the brave new world of markets heavily influenced by central bank activity. It has never been easy to interpret the reasons for market trends, but it has become nearly impossible. I enjoy old westerns and today's traders are behaving like cattle during a thunderstorm out on the prairie. Will the next news event spark a stampede like yesterday's market rout?