When I saw that anemic jobs report on Friday, I thought the worst about today's market open. And the futures were down early this morning, although not as badly as I feared. The markets indeed opened lower, but it didn't last long. Those poor bears were frustrated once again as the bulls bought the dip. SPX closed up $14 at $2081 and RUT added $5 to close at $1261. Interestingly, the VIX was flat at 14.7%. Trading volume was up with two billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading volume rose 5% on the NYSE and increased 6% on NASDAQ.
We start the earnings announcement cycle this week. Normally Alcoa is considered the opening of earnings season, although it won't be the first announcement this quarter. But it will be closely watched as always since aluminum plays a key role in so many industries. Many analysts are expecting a mediocre series of announcements because of the effects of a strong dollar on the multinationals. It is true that we have had a record low number of positive earnings guidance announcements this quarter and a relatively high number of companies guiding negatively. We'll see. More importantly, will it matter to the market?
I read an interesting note about our government's unemployment rate calculation today. If the labor force participation rate were the same today as it was in 2007, our current unemployment rate would be 10%. As people have given up on looking for work, that reduces both the numerator and the denominator of the calculation. Ten per cent unemployment fits my sense of the labor market; I know far too many people that have been out of work for a year or more. We have yet to recover from this recession. In fact, we are setting a record for the slowest economic recovery in history. Maybe we should try capitalism.
