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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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SPX displayed some extreme volatility just after the FOMC minutes were released this afternoon, but then it settled to about where it was before the announcement. SPX closed at $2082, up $6. RUT traded up $9, closing at $1263. Volatility dropped almost a full point with the VIX closing at 13.98%. Trading volume was modestly higher with 1.9 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading on the NYSE was up 10% and volume was up 7% on NASDAQ.

SPX is locked in the trading channel from $2040 to $2090. One could place the upper end of the range at $2120, the high from early March, but resistance at $2090 is proving strong; SPX has been unable to hold $2090 several times over the past few days.

Many Fed observers were anxious to understand from the March minutes why the FOMC removed the adjective, patient, from the announcement discussing timing of the expected interest rate hikes. I think they were disappointed. It seems that the committee simply wanted to be free to address that question at each meeting based on the data. Once again, trying to read the tea leaves proved frustrating.

Alcoa reported mixed results on earnings after the close with the stock trading down a bit after hours. Perhaps most significantly, Alcoa raised their forecast of global aluminum demand from +7% to +9%. That is an encouraging economic data point since aluminum is used in many different industries.

Tomorrow brings the latest unemployment claims data; we don't have any significant economic data due for the balance of the week. The earnings reports more likely to move the markets begin next week with J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and others.