The primary thesis of my blogs and newsletter for the past couple of weeks has been whether the bulls would be able to create a strong break-out to new highs to push this bull market even higher. SPX set new all-time highs last week, but the price action remained lackluster and largely sideways, slightly above the previous trading range set by the low in early March around $2040 and the highs around $2120 set in late February and late April. SPX lost $22 today to close at $2104, right back in that trading range of the past couple of months. RUT gapped open lower this morning, sliced through its 50 dma and closed down $13 at $1239. Volatility popped up almost two points on VIX with a close at 14.1%.

Trading volume was markedly higher in supporting this large move downward on the major market indexes. Trading on the S&P 500 stocks came in at 2.0 billion shares, up from Friday's 1.3 billion shares, but still below the 50 dma at 2.1B. Trading volume rose 29% on the NYSE and rose 11% on NASDAQ.

Today brought a mixed bag of economic data, starting with a dismal durable goods orders number of -0.5% for April, down from March's +5.1%. The Case Schiller housing price survey was flat from last month, but remains positive at +5.0%. New home sales increased to an annualized rate of 517 thousand for April. The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey report 95.4 for May, up very slightly from April's 94.3. Perhaps the weak durable goods order number prompted the bears to start rolling the market downhill. Other analysts blamed increasing strength in the dollar. Economic data has been steadily weaker for the past couple of months, so anything could have spooked traders at this point. When your profits are large, it is easy to push the sell button quickly and ask questions later. Of course, all of the talking heads will talk about "Sell in May and go away".

Will the bears continue to press their case tomorrow?