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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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Now that Greece has officially defaulted and capital controls have been imposed on the Greek Banks, it doesn't seem like we are seeing European or global markets in disarray. The rumored "contagion" hasn't started yet. If the sky isn't falling, then what is going on with our markets? Has the Greek debt saga scared traders or is there something more bleak hidden within this downtrend of the past few days?

SPX bounced slightly today, but not enough to give traders any confidence. SPX gained $5 to close at $2063. RUT closed right at its 50 dma, up $7 at $1254. The VIX spiked higher this morning, but settled down to close at 18.2%, down 0.6 points. Trading volume rose a bit from yesterday's spike higher with 2.4 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading volume rose 9% on the NYSE, but declined 1% on NASDAQ.

The Case Schiller housing price survey came in at +4.9% for April, essentially flat with March. The Chicago PMI reported 49.4 for June, up a bit from the previous 46.2. Analysts were predicting values of 50 to 51.

The small caps continue to trade stronger than the blue chips, which is a bullish sign. Whereas RUT closed today right at its 50 dma, SPX sliced through its 50 dma last Thursday and is hovering just above its 200 dma. SPX is trading right at the support level formed by the two pull backs in late March. The stronger pull back in early March bottomed at $2040. Breaking $2040 would raise my concern that this could turn into a true correction.