I checked the S&P futures late last night and it looked pretty ugly based largely on the Greek election results. By this morning, it remained negative, but not quite so bad. Then we opened and the markets dropped down but then quickly recovered. Maybe Greece isn't such a big deal after all. The Greek vote increases the probability of Greece leaving
the EU, but that prospect doesn't appear to have the same fears
associated with it now as it did several years ago, or even last week. Greek politicians have been "kicking the can down the road" for many years, but now, ordinary Greek citizens are the ones suffering.
SPX dropped down to $2058 before bouncing and closing at $2069, down $8 on the day. RUT handled Greece even better, closing down one dollar at $1247. Volatility popped up at the open, but settled lower during tarding, with the VIX closing at 17.2%. Trading volume was up a bit from Thursday with 2.0 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading. Trading on the NYSE and NASDAQ were both up 17%.
The ISM manufacturing index reported 53.5 for June, up from May's 52.8. The ISM services index reported 56.0, up from 55.7.
Perhaps we should be focusing on this earnings announcement cycle rather than Greece. We have both good and bad news. The good news is that the number of negative pre-announcements for the S&P 500 has declined to 80 for the second quarter of 2015 from 85 last quarter and 86 the previous quarter. The number of positive pre-announcements for the S&P 500 has increased to 27 from last quarter's 20. But the bad news is this: the number of companies in the S&P 500 issuing negative guidance for this quarter (80) is still above the five year average of 78, and the number issuing positive guidance (27) remains below the five year average of 33. This parallels the economic data we have been seeing - not terrible, but not booming ahead either. We continue to muddle along.
