Is it me or does it seem like this market just can't be happy? Many of us felt that worries about Greece were overblown, but the market traded off anyway. Then the market rebounded and now the market is concerned about global economic softness, especially China. I wrote in my newsletter last week that it looked like a good time to short the market as it started to flirt with previous highs. I was right. I wish I had taken that trade. I didn't because I was looking for a rational case one way or the other. Silly me.
SPX closed down $22 at $2080. RUT lost $19 to close at $1226. Volatility popped up a little more than a point with the VIX closing at 13.8%. Trading volume was essentially flat across the board with 2.4 billion shares of the S&P stocks trading today, same as yesterday. Trading volume rose 3% on the NYSE but was unchanged on NASDAQ. So the market slid a fair amount but it doesn't seem like traders are taking it very seriously so far.
SPX closed right at support at $2080. This level has played support several times since early April. SPX landed on the 50 dma yesterday, but opened there this morning and never looked back. The 200 dma is at $2064. If that breaks, the last correction ended at $2045.
The first estimate for second quarter GDP growth is due on July 30. A weak number could push this market lower given the current bleak mood. Sometimes it seems like no amount of bad news can slow down the bulls, but this isn't that market. Weak GDP data could really derail this market.
New home sales came in at 482k for June, down from last month's 517k (both annualized figures).
My September iron condor is doing well, up 17%. It is close to delta neutral, but today's drop pushed us a few dollars below the perfectly delta neutral spot.
