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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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Trading volume fell off dramatically today after dropping significantly yesterday as well. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks dropped to 1.7 billion shares today (well below the 50 dma = 2.14B). SPX finished eight dollars higher at $2092 and RUT also tacked on eight dollars to close at $1213. Volatility continued to come in with the VIX shedding six tenths of a point to close at 12.9%.

Today's move positions SPX right in the middle of the trading range of the past six months, but RUT is sitting at the bottom edge of that trading range. That may be a warning sign.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.2% in July, down from June's +0.4%. Industrial production increased 0.6% , a nice increase from June's +0.1%. Capacity utilization remains flat at 78%. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey came in at 92.9 for August, about the same as last month's 93.1.

I filled my RUT put spreads for October about three weeks ago, thinking I would sell the call spreads when the market cycled back toward the top end of the trading range. But instead, RUT has been hanging around the bottom edge of the trading range. That illustrates the risk taken when one legs into an iron condor position. My October put spreads are up about 3%, but I will feel better when this market makes a run higher so I can balance the position with the call spreads.

The price movement and the trading volume data seem like the market has gone into suspended animation until the Fed meeting in September. But that's a long time to wander sideways.