Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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After SPX bounced so strongly last Thursday, the markets appear to have stabilized. SPX has been gaining while RUT and the NASDAQ Composite have been more flat lined. SPX closed today up $6 at $2089 and RUT lost $4 to $1154. Volatility was essentially unchanged today with the VIX rising a tenth of a point to 18.5%. This is a relatively light economic data week, but any economic data is being eclipsed by the vote in Britain about continued Euro Zone membership. We should hear the results here before the market opens Friday morning. I regularly read many financial blogs and web sites, and listen to as much of the financial cable news as I can stomach (too much politics in all of them). My general impression is that everyone is freaked about the possibility of Britain leaving the EU. Of course, both sides have their horror stories if they lose - it isn't obvious to me who is correct. But I'm just a trader, not a macro-economist. What does concern me is whether this is just another "tempest in a teapot" or if the U.S. markets are likely to make a big move either way on Friday.

When the market bounced so strongly last Thursday, I sold the weekly SPX 2030/2040 put spreads, now up 6%. I will close that position tomorrow or Thursday at the latest. SPX at $2040 is strong line of support, but Brexit may test support. At a minimum, it all makes great theater.