The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) set a new all-time high on August 15th and tried to reach that number again on August 23rd, but it has faltered since then. Janet Yellen spoke at the Jackson Hole economic conference at 10 am ET this morning, and SPX made its intraday high a few minutes later. But then the party ended. Traders decided another interest rate hike is coming and sold off. SPX reached a low around 2:30 pm ET but then recovered a bit to close at $2169, down $3. The second quarter GDP growth numbers, announced earlier this morning, with an annualized growth rate of 1.1%, probably didn’t help. That is pretty weak. FACTSET released the final earning results for the S&P 500 for the second quarter, down 3.2%. This is the fifth consecutive quarter of earnings declines. This is the first time we have seen a five quarter string of declines since 2008-2009.
However, SPX is holding up rather well. $2160 has set up as a solid support level and that is where SPX bounced today. If we break $2160, the next level to watch is the 50-day moving average (dma) at $2144. Trading volume in the S&P 500 companies has run below the 50 dma since August 8th. This market is certainly out of steam, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it is going over the cliff. SPX has been very resistant to the bearish arguments.
The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) just traded modestly higher this week, but closed at $1238 today, down two dollars. RUT was not able to match its highs from last year during this strong post-BREXIT run, a bearish sign.
After trading near 2016 lows last week, the SPX volatility Index (VIX) moved higher this week, opening Monday at 12.5% and closing today at 13.7%. Perhaps more significantly, VIX moved as high as 15% earlier today. I would guess the bounce of SPX off support at $2160 calmed some nerves.
A couple of weeks ago, I offered two possible driving forces behind the bullish post-BREXIT market:
1) Traders are buying with renewed confidence that the Fed won't raise interest rates before the end of the year.
2) We may be seeing the effects of global cash flows seeking a safe haven in our stock market. The global economy is slowing and, even though the U.S. economic data are mediocre at best, we are looking better than most.
With the market’s reaction to Yellen’s comments today, perhaps we are left with the “best house in the bad neighborhood” theory. It may be significant that the market did not trade lower this morning after the weak GDP growth numbers. Poor economic data continue to be ignored by this market. It appears to be primarily Fed driven, which would argue that a pull back won’t come until the FOMC actually raises interest rates. But will Yellen and company raise rates before the election? I doubt it. They don’t want to be seen as adding fuel to the fire for either side’s arguments.
Be cautious. This is a nervous market. As evidence, look at the three point intraday range of the VIX today.