The trade negotiations with China remain the principal worry for the markets. The political turmoil appears to be a minor irritant at this point. The result is a sideways market with sudden and unpredictable twitches on the latest trade news. The Standard and Poors 500 Index (SPX) closed today at 2962, down 16 points. The candlesticks of the past four days of trading have long lower shadows, suggesting the market is finding support from the 50-day moving average (dma) at 2949 and the May high at 2952. Trading volume continues to reflect the market’s uncertainty, remaining below the 50-day moving average (dma) all week. The volatility index for SPX, VIX, closed at 17.2%, up about 1.2 points today. This is a moderately worrisome level of volatility. Stay attentive and be cautious.
The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) put in its second week of steady declines, closing at 1520 today, down 2.4% this week alone. Today’s price action was particularly worrisome, breaking down through the 50 dma and closing on the 200 dma. The only positive note is that Russell broke through the 200 dma in late afternoon trading, but recovered to close right at the 200 dma. Technical analysts have always regarded a break of the 200 dma on a stock or an index as very bearish.
The NASDAQ Composite index came close to trading as bearishly as Russell, losing 2% of its value this week as it closed today at 7940, down 91 points. NASDAQ flirted with its 50 dma all week, but decisively broke it today, closing a little over 100 points below the 200 dma at 8041. With the exception of Tuesday, NASDAQ’s trading volume ran below average all week.
Chairman Powell’s news conference appears to have finally squashed all of the recession talk. Now the “sky is falling” crowd can better focus on the trade war with China.
Regardless of which index you prefer to follow, this was an ugly week for the markets. The only glimmer of optimism might be derived from the S&P 500 chart as the index repeatedly appeared to find support on the 50 dma. The long lower candlestick shadows the past four days may not be strong bullish signs, but they show significant support. The large institutional traders have not yet thrown in the towel.
The bottom line for this market has not changed in my opinion. Traders are nervous and exit the market in volume on the least provocation. It pays to be cautious and focus on solid blue-chip stocks. I found it interesting today to see a few stocks defy the overall market and post gains: HAS, RH, FSS, AME and ROST.