Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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News and rumors continue to jerk this market around on a daily basis. The Standard and Poors 500 Index (SPX) closed Friday at 2986, down 12 points. SPX remained modestly positive for the week, up 0.7%. It was a choppy week for the markets with a new report or rumor about the trade negotiations with China driving the market almost on a daily basis. Last Friday’s evening star candlestick was not confirmed by trading this week. The bullish underlying trend remains, but each day brings a new dose of either confidence or pessimism. It is a difficult market to trade. When it moves higher, traders take profits, and then the next rumor drives it lower, and the bulls buy the lows.

Trading volume for the S&P 500 companies broke above the 50-day moving average (dma) on Friday but the first four days of the week traded at volumes well below average. The lower volume continues to stand as a caution flag for this market. The bulls are buying, but they are also taking profits.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, reflected the choppy market action this week, opening the week at 15.7% and then moving to a low on Thursday of 13.8%. But Friday’s market weakness took its toll, increasing volatility to 14.6%. This is a moderate level of volatility, not exactly calm, but not scary either.

The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) appears to be attempting a rebound over the past couple of weeks after a very weak September. Russell closed Friday at 1525, down five points on the day, but up 1.2% for the week.

The NASDAQ Composite index appeared to hit resistance this week at the highs set in May and September. NASDAQ closed Friday at 8090, down 67 points, but up 0.6% for the week. NASDAQ trading volume was below average all week, but managed to touch the 50 dma on Friday.

This week was a repeat of last week’s trading with wide swings one day and then a doji candlestick the next day, driven by the latest rumors and/or news on the trade negotiations with China. This remains a dangerous market. I expect the volatility will continue and I remain less than fully invested. Pick your trades carefully and stop out positions aggressively.