The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 4124, down seven points on the day or -0.2%. SPX opened the week at 4137, so the weekly result was similar at a loss of 0.3%. Trading volume continues to come in very low; volume ran well below the 50-day moving average (dma) all week.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 17.7%, and closed today at 17.0%, down 4.0% for the week. This level of volatility seems high for the pattern of the price movement itself. This makes me wonder if volatility is remaining moderately high due to fear of “another shoe dropping”, whether that be another bank collapsing or an interview with a FOMC member sounding hawkish.

I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed today at 172.7, down 0.4 points or -0.2% on the day. IWM opened the week at 175.3, so the loss for the week was larger at -1.5%. IWM is trading weaker than any other broad market index, trading well below both the 50 dma and the 200 dma and its February high at 199. Some analysts attribute this weakness to a large number of small and regional banks in the Russell 2000 that are under pressure after the failure of the larger banks over the past few weeks.

The NASDAQ Composite index closed at 12,285 today, up 44 points 
or +0.4%. NASDAQ opened the week at 12,232, resulting in an identical weekly gain of +0.4%. NASDAQ is the only broad market index to have broken its February high, although it barely held that level today. NASDAQ’s trading volume fell off again this week, remaining under the 50 dma all week.

I believe we are near a “fork in the road” moment. This week’s CPI and PPI reports gave us hope that the inflation growth rate may be moderating, but it is only a minor turn lower. It could easily reassert itself. Inflation concerns have been replaced with a fear of a contagious run on the banks leading to a serious recession or worse.

The price charts are generally chopping sideways, appearing indecisive about which way to go. I worry that a critical piece of bad news could trip this market into a serious fall lower. I still remember global markets pausing as they watched the Greek debt crisis unfold in 2015. Greece’s debt to GDP ratio was 125%. That is precisely where our politicians (in both parties) have left us, and, incredibly, they want to add more debt. It seems that no one wishes to get this house in order. Let’s just open another credit card!

I closed a group of profitable trades this week but didn’t replace them. This is a good time to keep your powder dry and wait for a better day.

Be patient, trade small, take profits early, and leave a large percentage of your cash on the sidelines.