The Standard and Poors 500 index (SPX) closed today at 5942, up 74 points or 1.3%. SPX opened the week at 5921, gaining 0.4% for the week. Trading volume ran well below the 50-day moving average (dma) all week, typical of holiday markets.

VIX, the volatility index for the S&P 500 options, opened the week at 17.2% and closed today at 16.1%, down almost 10% today.

I track the Russell 2000 index with the IWM ETF, which closed today at 224.4, up 3.3 points or 1.5% on the day. IWM opened the week at 220.7 for a weekly gain of 1.7%. IWM trading volume ran close to the 50 dma this week.

The NASDAQ Composite index closed today at 19,622, up 341 points or 1.8%. NASDAQ opened the week at 19,460, setting up a modest weekly gain of 0.8%. NASDAQ’s trading volume ran above the 50 dma all week.

The Santa Claus rally was discovered by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac. The last five trading days of December and the first two days of January have averaged a positive 1.3% gain since 1969 through 2023. Unfortunately, Santa didn’t come to Wall Street this year (down 0.7%).

The Stock Trader’s Almanac also tracks the first five days of January trading as a forecast for the year ahead. Positive gains for the first five days of January have preceded a positive year for the S&P 500 index 83% of the time. After two days, SPX is up 0.7%.

The January Barometer tracks the full month’s trading gain or loss. A positive January Barometer has predicted a positive S&P 500 gain with 73% accuracy.

This market has been challenging to trade since the S&P 500 index hit its most recent high on December 6th. SPX traded lower almost immediately and then did a quick turnaround and almost recovered that previous high. But then the market gave it all back during the closing days of December. It has been very frustrating to see tentative gains and then watch them disappear just as quickly. Fortunately, our Apple spread survived the chaos with a nice gain.

Today’s positive market gains give me hope for a better new year.