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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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Today's economic news began with the preliminary GDP numbers for the first quarter of a 3.2% gain as compared with 5.6% in the fourth quarter. Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.6% from the fourth quarter's 1.6%. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (Chicago PMI) came in at 63.8, greater than the 60 that was expected; this is the highest PMI number since 2005. And the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index came in at 72.2, greater than the expected 71.0. All in all, it was pretty good economic news.

But the market tanked in response. 

RUT lost $21 to close at $717 while the SPX closed at $1187, a loss of $20. Trading volume was mixed with a 6% increase on the NYSE and a 10% drop on NASDAQ. The S&P 500 stocks traded over 5 billion shares, an increase from yesterday and this represented the 14th day above the 50 day moving average. As you might expect, the VIX gained 20% to close at 22%. Gold hit a 2010 high at $1181. The modest trading volumes don't suggest widespread panic selling, plus the RUT and SPX both remained above key support levels set over the past few weeks.

Today's move took my May 650/660 770/780 iron condor on RUT to a delta neutral position with a P/L of -$1,160, delta = -$3 and theta = +$137. It will be interesting to see what happens Monday. I believe there is a high probability of much of this loss being retraced on Monday. At least some of the selling today was the result of taking cash off the table as the details of the Greece bailout are finalized this weekend. Barring any surprises over the weekend, buyers will likely return to the table Monday. But that is the beauty of my condor trade: I don't have to predict Monday's market direction (but it is fun to try).