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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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Global sovereign debt problems overwhelmed all other news today to drive the markets lower with greater volume. Factory orders for March increased by 1.3%, beating expectations. Pending home sales for March rose 5.3%, greater than the predicted 5%. But this positive news was completely eclipsed by concerns that Greece's fiscal problems will spread through Europe and perhaps the world. RUT plummeted $23 to $710 while the SPX closed at $174, a decline of $29. Both indexes managed rallies into the close that made up for some of the losses. The key question is whether we should interpret that late buying as the markets having reached a support level or whether more losses are ahead for tomorrow. Trading volume was increased significantly across the board with a 27% increase on the NYSE, and a 29% increase on NASDAQ; the S&P 500 stocks traded about 5.2 billion shares. Yesterday's trading volume on the S&P 500 was the only session out of the last 15 trading sessions to be below the 50 day moving average. Normally, we would interpret greater than average trading volume as conviction for the resulting trend - but, in the last few trading sessions, we have had large moves with increased volume both up and down. However, we are setting lower lows, so maybe the long awaited correction has begun.

My May iron condor on RUT is in pretty good shape with a net P/L of -$1400, delta = +$22 and theta = +$157. However, the June iron condor will need adjustment if this market continues down tomorrow. It stands at -$1,100, delta = +$7 and theta = +$75. The position greeks are excellent, which allowed me to be patient with this position today, but we will require some adjustments for any further moves downward. This market continues to set volatility records; now RUT has traded with swings of over $15 for four consecutive sessions - very unusual.