The markets opened up strongly this morning and slowly but steadily traded higher all day. The Treasury Department reported a deficit for April of 83 billion dollars, much greater than the 53 billion economists expected. This was the largest deficit ever recorded for the month of April. The dollar traded up strongly today, up as much as 0.5% at one point. But the markets traded up in the face of this news. Gold continues to trade higher, reaching $1250 during the day and closing at $1243. I guess I should have listened to all of those commercials promoting gold.
The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) traded up $21 to close at $716 while the Standard and Poors 500 Index (SPX) closed at $1172, an increase of $16. Trading volume declined today across the board, down 15% on the NYSE and down 19% on NASDAQ. Trading in the S&P 500 stocks dropped to about 4.2 billion shares, just below the 50 day moving average. SPX just touched the 50 day moving average during the trading session, but couldn't break out above that level. The 50 day moving average is tracked by many large institutions as a technical support and resistance level. By contrast, RUT broke through the 50 day moving average resistance and is approaching its highs in April. Investor's Business Daily still had the market assessed as "Market In Correction" this morning, but today's action may have changed that rating. Just as last Thursday set historic records for the markets, this market's rapid reversal is also setting records. Yesterday, I wrote, "I think the unbridled enthusiasm that drove the markets in March has
been shaken." What a difference one day can make!
After adjusting my May condor down after last week's crash, my position is now being trampled to the upside! I have closed and rolled half of my call spreads and all of my put spreads; my long June calls are limiting some of the damage, but not enough. Current delta stands at -$59 and theta = +$253. The prospects of salvaging a gain from the May position are diminishing. By contrast, my June RUT iron condor spread is sitting pretty with a delta of -$23 and theta = +$73. The 790/800 calls are over one standard deviation OTM and the 580/590 put spreads are over two standard deviations OTM. But we have 36 days to expiration, and as we have seen recently, that is plenty of time for all kinds of things to happen!
