I expected today to be a modest or even a bearish day in the markets with all eyes focused on the European bank stress tests. But I was wrong. RUT surged $15 to close at $651 while the SPX punched through the $1100 resistance level to close at $1103. However, as is common of late, the volume was disappointing. The S&P 500 stocks traded down from yesterday to just under 4 billion shares while trading on the NYSE was flat from yesterday. Trading on NASDAQ was up 9%.
Analysts were of mixed opinion on the rally's impetus. Some saw the Eurobank stress tests as positive news; other doubted the veracity of the tests. Some attributed the market's rise to strength in the Euro currency, driving the dollar down in relative terms.
I was on a plane or wandering through airports during much of the trading hours today and was unable to hedge my Aug iron condor. Consequently, it is in a precarious condition with delta = -$131 and theta = +$155; the delta of the $680 calls is up to 27, way past where it should have been hedged. I should have entered an order to buy the Sept hedges contingent on RUT breaking through $645, but I didn't - I broke my own rules of not predicting the market's future action. I was sure today would be a bearish day due to the Eurobank stress tests. Today's action on the SPX chart broke out of the bearish trend that had been prevalent since late April. Can the market hold this level? Given the low trading volumes, one has to wonder.
