The financial news from last night into this morning seemed to be focused on the unfolding Greek drama. As a result, trading was subdued today, but the lows of the morning couldn't be held and the broad markets closed close to unchanged for the day - pretty bullish behavior. SPX closed down less than a dollar at $1344 and RUT closed down $3 at $828. Trading volume fell off significantly from Friday with 2.5 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading; trading volume on the NYSE was down 24% and volume was down 22% on NASDAQ. SPX is holding right at the high set in late July. Given all of the "impending doom" news about Greece's economic woes, and this rather tentative market reaction on much lower volume, one has to wonder if a Greek default isn't already priced into this market. I believe the consensus developing among analysts is that Europe's economic problems aren't going to result in a global recession. Of course, the minute we see any news to suggest that isn't true, it could get ugly in a hurry as people run for the fire exits. To be perfectly honest, I'm not sure where the truth is; I have seen compelling arguments that some of the complex credit default swaps and the like will bring down our large multinational banks, but others are arguing the exposure is minimal. So the prudent trader is left with the only true "secret" in this business: manage the risk. Be sure you are adequately hedged; use stop losses; and follow your rules.
There were no economic reports of consequence today. The VIX is holding steady just below 18%. I thought it a little odd that VIX didn't rise this morning as the market opened weakly. But it didn't, so I suppose everyone is fat and happy...
My Feb iron condor position stands at a P/L of -$1,430 with position delta= -$32 and theta = +$271 with 20 contracts. The Mar condor has a P/L of -$2,090 with delta = -$22 and theta = +$74.
