Sounds like we are dancing the limbo, doesn't it? Unfortunately, this isn't a harmless pastime, it's real money. SPX tumbled again yesterday after rising in early trading. SPX closed at $1325, down $6 and RUT gave up $5 to close at $772. Trading volume of the S&P 500 rose to 3.2 billion shares while volume dropped 1% on the NYSE and rose 7% on NASDAQ. SPX is nearing that congestion area of $1310 to $1320 of late January. We have now given up about half of 2012's gains. The most troublesome aspect of the chart the past two days is the fact that SPX hits highs during the day, but cannot hold anywhere near those highs. The bears are in charge. As I write this blog, the futures are basically flat, but those long upper shadows on the candlesticks of SPX the past two days are bearish signs. We may not have seen the bottom of this correction yet. Consistent with that view, VIX rose to 22.3% on Wednesday.
Most analysts see Greece leaving the EU, but analysts are divided on the effects of that eventuality on the global economy. And that uncertainty is driving the markets lower. European chaos is also strengthening the dollar and that increases the downward pressure on US markets.
My May condor on RUT stands at +$1,700 with delta = +$10 and theta = +$135. The put spreads remain outside of two standard deviations. The Jun condor stands at a net P/L of +$940 with delta = +$41 and theta = +$64.
