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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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 The S&P 500 Index started the day in positive territory but then moved into the red around noon and stayed there most of the afternoon. Then it scrambled out of the hole in the last thirty minutes and managed to close with a gain of $2 at $1321. RUT gained $1 to close at $767. All of this choppy trading occurred on lower trading volume with 2.9 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading (the 50 dma = 2.8B). Trading volume declined 11% on the NYSE and dropped 10% on NASDAQ. The last two trading sessions in SPX have seen long lower shadows on the candlesticks with closes near the session highs; in and of itself, this suggests some building of support. But this is still a precarious market; any news or even rumors out of Europe could send it tumbling.

The VIX dropped to 21.5% today, down from recent highs, but still at an elevated level. Take heed; be cautious.

Initial unemployment claims came in at 370k, down two thousand from last week. Continuing claims dropped 29k to 3.26 million. Durable orders increased 0.2% in April, an improvement from last month's 3.7% drop. So hard economic data for the states continues to muddle along - not terrible, but not great either. Traders are primarily focused on the events unfolding in Europe: will Greece leave the EU? What effects will that have on the global economy? Who is next after Greece? At best, Europe is in for some hard times; will that drag down the global economy? So far, institutional traders appear to be adopting the posture of "shoot first" and try to ascertain the facts later. That makes for a lot of volatility. Thus far, we aren't seeing the extremes of price volatility we saw last August, but who knows what tomorrow may bring?


My June iron condor position on RUT stands at a P/L of +$1,040 with position delta = +$43 and position theta = +$87.