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Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
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It isn't hard to hear many analysts deliver what appear to be sound arguments for the bearish case in this market, but the bears have yet to take any of the recent opportunities to drive the market significantly lower. SPX opened and immediately sold off this morning, but the bears couldn't hold it down. By noon, SPX was trading around $1414. SPX did weaken in the last hour or so of trading today and closed down $1 at $1410. RUT moved up $1 to close at $810. In spite of the market averages holding up rather well, VIX increased by over a percentage point to close at 16.4%. This divergence in VIX makes me wonder, but just looking at the price action leads me to believe the bulls are still in control of this market.

No significant economic news was reported today; tomorrow brings some housing price data and consumer confidence numbers. The Fed beige book is due out on Wednesday, but I don't think anyone expects any surprises there. Whatever you may think of Bernanke, he deserves credit for trying to be much more open than his predecessor.

My Sept iron condor on RUT at 650/660 and 850/860 stands at a P/L of +$200 with position delta = -$90 and position theta = +$89. As the Greeks show, this position is still being pressured on the call side. My Oct iron condor on RUT was opened August 21 at 710/720 and 880/890 and now stands at a net P/L of +$580 with delta = -$9 and theta = +$66.

Trade what the market gives you, not your predictions.