The Bulls Are Running Over Everything In Sight!
Written by Dr. Duke   
Friday, 03 February 2012 16:36

The jobs report this morning was the perfect message for this market. The bulls went on a buying spree that has been unmatched recently. SPX gained $19 to close at $1345, near the July high of $1353 and near the 2011 high of $1364. RUT gapped open and tacked on a strong $18 to close at $831. Trading volume was also very strong with 3.3 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading today; volume gained 13% on the NYSE and was up 12% on NASDAQ.

The jobs report came in with an increase of 243k jobs and unemployment dropped to 8.3%. The ISM Services Index came in at 56.8 for January, up from 53.0. VIX dropped almost a full percentage point to 17.1% today; I was a little surprised it didn't drop more, given the strength of this rally.

So I guess we can officially declare the European debt crisis solved, at least so far as this market is concerned. Some analysts believe that today's spike is due to many money managers who have been sitting on large amounts of cash deciding they were being left behind after the January rally. If that is the case, a severe correction may be around the corner - it seems the market has a knack for confounding our best efforts to "get on the band wagon". So while you are enjoying the bullish trades, keep a tight stop engaged.

This bullish run forced me to hedge both of my condor positions yesterday, with $830 Mar calls for the Feb condor and the Apr $860 calls for the Mar condor. Today I closed the Mar 840/850 calls and rolled up to 850/860. The Feb RUT condor stands at a P/L of -$1,540 with delta = -$83 and theta = +$123. My Mar RUT iron condor stands at a P/L of -$2,000 with delta = -$46 and theta = +$44.

Have great weekend.

Comments (2)add comment
Calculation of Feb RUT Condor P/L
written by Tano , February 05, 2012

Sir, the FEB 840/850 call spread is at 3.40. Doesn't this make the P/L close to breakeven? Thanks.
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written by Dr. Duke , February 05, 2012

The P/L I posted was the P/L that would be achieved if the position were closed today, not the P/L at expiration.
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