The markets appear to be trading sideways at this point, unsure which way to turn. SPX closed down $1 at $1412 while RUT lost $4 to close at $813. VIX remains essentially unchanged at 17.8%. If we draw a downward trend line on RUT's chart from its peak on September 14 to today, the upper edge of the band today is at about $835 and the lower edge of the band is around $805. Interestingly, the 50 dma is at $832 and the 200 dma is at $806. So the question facing traders is this: Is this downward trend just a consolidation within a larger bullish trend? Or is it the beginning of a new bearish trend? Trading below the 200 dma will confirm the bearish trend scenario and breaking out above the 50 dma will confirm the resumption of the bullish run. In the meantime, we are dawdling here in "no man's land".
GDP for the third quarter came in today higher than expected at a +2.0% annualized growth rate, a big improvement over the second quarter's 1.3%. But that apparently didn't impress traders one way or the other. Bulls couldn't capitalize on the news, but neither could the bears. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey came in at 82.6 for October, a slight decrease from September's 83.1, but probably well within the margin of error.
My November iron condor position remains at a gain of about 9% with 20 days until expiration.
We are having classic fall weather here in Chicago. Enjoy your weekend with family and friends. It is easy to become distracted as we trade all week; remind yourself what's important this weekend.
To Be Or Not To Be
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