SPX bounced back upward this morning and put to rest the naysayers looking for a correction. SPX ran up $8 and closed at $1570. On the other hand, RUT decreased $4 to close at $934. Volatility gave back yesterday's increases with VIX closing at 12.8%. Trading volume popped up from yesterday's anemic levels, but remains relatively low with 2.2 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading. Trading increased 13% on the NYSE and also increased 7% on NASDAQ.
The fact that RUT diverged from SPX's rise today is another indicator of the sideways consolidation range remaining in control. The Fed's pumping up of this market can't be ignored, but many traders are becoming cautious. This is keeping the bulls in check. You also see this in the relatively low trading volume of the past several weeks. If traders were as bullish as one might conclude from all of the euphoria about new market highs, we should be seeing strong trading volumes to accompany the rising prices. But unless we have some seriously bad news that surprises traders, I think the sideways consolidation range established over the past three weeks will likely continue.
Tomorrow we will receive the ADP private employment numbers, leading to speculation about Friday's jobs report. That jobs report could bring a surprise, but that doesn't seem likely, given the recent economic news and data. It hasn't been rosy, but it hasn't been terrible either. An extremely negative surprise in the jobs report is the only possibility to trigger the widely discussed correction. More likely, we will continue to trade sideways and slightly higher.
My April iron condor continues to slowly improve its position with a current P/L of -$1,590 with position delta = +$53 and position theta = +$121. My May position at 840/850 and 1010/1020 stands at a 6% gain with delta = +$10 and theta = +$45.
Fake-Out
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