Analysts have been predicting a correction for several weeks now. At every slight pull back, CNBC assembles a crowd of gurus who are arguing about how far down the correction will take us. But today was another of those surprisingly strong market days. SPX opened slightly in positive territory this morning and chopped sideways until just before noon, when it began a slow and steady climb. SPX reached $1574 before slowing a bit to close at $1569, up $6 on the day. RUT was more subdued with a loss of $2, closing at $929. So SPX remains firmly within the trading range of $1545 to $1570, established over the past several weeks. RUT's chart doesn't look as positive; RUT has yet to climb back to the $940 to $960 trading range that it established in parallel with SPX during the latter part of March. While RUT followed SPX's lead and climbed to an intraday high in late afternoon trading, it gave it all back in the last hour.
Trading volume was up from yesterday's anemic levels, but remains below long term averages. Trading in the S&P 500 hit 2.3 billion shares, up from yesterday's two billion but still well below the 50 dma. Trading volume was up 14% on the NYSE and was up 13% on NASDAQ.
So what can we make of this market? Is it safe to be bullish? I think the Fed's continuing QE will hold up this market. But the risk is some dire European debt crisis news, a downgrade of U.S. debt or something else we don't expect. The result is a sideways consolidation move that is successfully burning off the excess euphoria from earlier this year. So I am cautiously bullish. Choose your stocks carefully and use tight stops.
My Apr condor stands at a net P/L of -$1100 or -6% with delta = +$51 and theta = +$166. The May position stands at a P/L of +$1120 or +6% with delta = +$21 and theta = +$56.
The Correction Watch Continues
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