Through about half of today's trading, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) was down or flat, but the Russell 2000 Index (RUT) was always in positive territory and just advanced even higher as SPX moved into the black in the afternoon. SPX ended up $7 higher at $1634 and RUT gained $9 to close at $975. But trading volume declined with 2.1 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading and volume on the NYSE dropped 8%. Trading volume on NASDAQ decreased 7%. Seeing RUT leading the SPX is very bullish - the classic definition of "risk on". But lower trading volume continues as a hallmark of this bullish market. This certainly is atypical of strong bull markets.
VIX dropped a half point to 12.6%. There was no economic news of any consequence today.
I closed my RUT May 1010/1020 call spreads today in accordance with my Two Sigma Rule. The 1010 call was 1.9 standard deviations OTM this morning. It was borderline whether to close the call spreads this morning, but the decision appeared more and more correct as the day wore on. That confirms a 9% gain for my May condor, assuming the 840/850 put spreads expire worthless next weekend.
I opened the June iron condor on RUT at 820/830 and 1000/1010 for a credit of $1.50 on 4/24 and hedged with the July 1000 calls on 5/3. Today, I closed the 1000/1010 call spreads and rolled them up to 1020/1030; I left the July hedges in place. This position still retains the potential of a gain of around 5.5% if everything goes well for us - wishful thinking perhaps. But that is the point of hedging: keep the losses in check and buy time for the market to flatten out or pull back.
This bull market is certainly persistent. It is fascinating how many of us traders are wary of it. One of the guys on CNBC today said this was the "most hated bull market" on the exchange floor he had ever seen. It makes traders nervous to be investing in a market that is largely being held up by the Fed.
Enjoy your weekend.
RUT Takes The Lead
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