The S&P 500 gave up $23 yesterday, closing at $1727. Today, SPX rose $23 to
close at $1771. RUT behaved similarly, closing up $21 at $1100.
SPX essentially made a rather large round trip in just two days - wow!
What does that tell us? The trading gods are toying with us.
Yesterday we had an excellent GDP report
with annualized growth in the third quarter of 2.8%. And the market
traded down. The standard explanation was either 1) the correction we
have expected has begun, or 2) this means the Fed will begin to reduce
their stimulus programs. This morning we were surprised by a good jobs
report of 204 thousand new jobs. Unemployment ticked up a bit to 7.3%,
and most of the new jobs were minimum wage jobs, but it was still
refreshingly good. And the markets regained everything that was lost
yesterday! So good news was bad news yesterday, but good news was
treated as great news today. I can't explain it. I think it merely
reinforces what we have been subjected to all year. The markets have
repeatedly traded scared and then reversed on a dime. Very
few fund managers have reported consistently good results this year. It
has been a maddening market. I think it is a combination of traders
trying to predict the effects of the Fed supporting the market and the
increasing amount of automated trading that swings huge volumes back and
forth in very short periods of time.
Trading volume dropped back
a bit from yesterday with 2.4 billion shares of the S&P 500
trading. Trading on the NYSE declined 8% while trading volume on NASDAQ
dropped 13%. Volatility decreased by a full percentage point with the
VIX coming in at 12.9%.
I think yesterday's price action, at a
minimum, serves as a warning about this market. Traders are nervous and
the rush for the exits can easily be triggered by rather benign events.
I
closed my Nov SPX 1800/1810 call spreads today. This locks in a 6.4%
loss for November, assuming the 1650/1660 put spreads expire worthless. But my December positions are already up about 3%.
This was certainly an interesting week in the markets. Relax and enjoy your weekend.
Fooled Ya!
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