Traders were anxiously waiting for something from the Fed that might move the markets this afternoon, but after some gyrations back and forth the markets ended virtually unchanged on the day. SPX closed unchanged at $1970 and RUT moved up $5 to close at $1147. SPX remains in the sideways trading channel of the past several weeks. RUT spent part of the day beneath the 200 dma, but managed to close above it.
The VIX traded up above 14% intraday, but closed unchanged at 13.3%. Trading volumes were mixed with 2.2 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading, down slightly from yesterday, but still above the 50 dma. Trading increased 10% on the NYSE and decreased 10% on NASDAQ.
The big economic news was the first estimate of second quarter GDP at +4.0%, much higher than economists expected after such a dismal first quarter. ADP's private employment report came in at +218k, down from last month's 281k. That could suggest a weaker number from the Fed's job's report Friday morning, but the correlation of the two reports in the past is not very good. The FOMC announcement didn't offer any new insights. If the tapering continues, all quantitative easing programs should be removed by year end. Unless inflation spikes up, interest rates will remain low.
My August condor on SPX is doing well, as one might expect with the sideways trading of the past few weeks. That emboldened me to add a September condor on SPX, but I gave myself plenty of safety margin on the downside. Virtually all indicators are bullish, but I still worry about a correction. The divergence between SPX and RUT is troublesome to me. We'll see.
Fed Message Unchanged
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- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 2011

