The markets opened weaker this morning, but then began a steady climb higher, with SPX closing at $1939, up $14 and near its high for the day at $1943. RUT gained $10 to close at $1125. Trading volume fell off from Friday with 1.9 billion shares of the S&P 500 stocks trading today; this is right at the 50 dma. Trading volume declined 21% on the NYSE and dropped off 18% on NASDAQ. Volatility pulled back with VIX closing at 15.1%, down nearly two points on the day.
There were no significant economic reports today, so why the big turnaround? Some analysts attributed it to the excellent earnings announcement from Berkshire Hathaway. The problem with that analysis is that Berkshire reported Friday. It took traders all weekend and up until about 11 am ET this morning to figure this out? I don't think so. We need a financial network where the talking heads aren't afraid to say, "I don't have a clue".
Let's recap the past few days. The Fed announcement Wednesday afternoon was a non-event - same old story; no news there and the market basically trades sideways. Then the market gaps open lower on Thursday and the S&P 500 loses about 2% of its value in one day. Why? Were traders afraid of the jobs report coming Friday? The jobs report wasn't stellar, but it was still a 200k plus number. But the market opens weakly on Friday and doesn't really go anywhere. The market opens this morning and wanders sideways and lower. And then it starts climbing to close near its highs for the day. Why? I don't know.
If I sound a little frustrated, it's true. I hedged my August condor positions Thursday. As the markets were trading weakly this morning, I decided to close half of my August put spreads to limit my downside risk and I left the hedge options in place just in case something crazy happened tomorrow morning. But then the market rebounds so strongly that I have to sell my hedge options lest I take too large a loss on them. Now I will be fortunate to nurse my August position to a small gain or a break-even. I admit that risk management that gets you out near break-even is good risk management. But that doesn't mean I feel good about it. This is a frustrating business. The next time some guru is telling you how he understands this market... Well, I will leave that to your discretion.
Does This Make Sense?
- Details
- Written by Dr. Duke
- Category: Dr. Duke's Blog
- Hits: 2039

