I ended yesterday's blog with these comments, "My rational analysis of the markets and the economy cause me to be more
pessimistic about the prospects of continued market highs. RUT's
declines of late appear to support that thesis. But every time I think I
have built a solidly reasoned case for the market's direction, the
market seems determined to prove me wrong." As predicted, SPX came out of the gate running and tacked on $10 to close at $2052. RUT came to life as well, gaining $6 to close at $1170. Today's close on SPX was a new all-time high, but RUT continues to lag behind its most recent September high around $1185. It doesn't have to make sense; it just is.
Trading volume was mixed with 1.9 billion shares of the S&P 500 trading, flat with yesterday and below the 50 dma. Trading increased 8% on the NYSE, but decreased 3% on NASDAQ. Volatility was essentially unchanged with the VIX at 13.9%.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for October increased 0.2%, up a bit from last month's 0.1% decline. I keep wondering where inflation is hiding; a lot of money has been pumped into this economy.
I added to the hedges on my December position today. With the additional hedges, my December condor's current P/L at -6% should remain about constant if SPX continues higher. Everything tells me the market is going to pull back, but I can only play what the market gives me, and it continues to rise. The FOMC minutes will be released tomorrow; it is anybody's guess whether that could move the market. Sometimes analysts fix on a single word and it moves traders one way or the other.
Don't Tempt the Market Gods
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